Skin Stats #2

Skins are fair, they don’t favour the high handicapper.”    Bruce has won 2136 baht over 68 rounds (average 31 baht/round).   One would then come to the conclusion that it isn’t a lie — low handicappers can win.   Analyzing Bruce’s totals he won 4600 baht on the par 3’s.   He is the by far the best golfer here and it is no surprise that he dominates the par 3’s.    New to the scene is Woody with a slightly lower handicap than Bruce.  How does that affect Bruce’s winnings?

Bruce (without Woody) :  37 rounds and a profit of 1986 baht (54 baht/round)

Bruce (with Woody) :  15 rounds and a profit of 150 baht  (10 baht/round)

Woody (with Bruce) :  15 rounds and a loss of 25 baht.

Woody (without Bruce) :  1 round and a profit of 210 baht.

Suppose another very low handicapper were to be added to the mix.   Would you not expect all 3 to struggle to win money at skins?

Moving to the high handicappers — My expectation is that they would break close to even on the Stableford and possibly make some money on the 18 holes.   I had to do a bit of work because things weren’t exactly as I expected and I needed to know why.    From the beginning I said that allowing scores from other golf courses is the equivalent of allowing urinating in the swimming pool.  Different courses which may or may not be rated correctly  mixing with Santiburi’s incorrect course rating in Birdie is a recipe for error.

rounds date money pins stable holes
52 5Points – pre July 20 -583 -1370 -422 1209
per round -5 -25 -7 27
9 5Points – after July 20 -725 -130 -250 -345
per round -81 -14 -28 -38
61 5Points – Combined -1308 -1500 -672 864
per round -21 -25 -11 14

What happened?   Before July 20th,  5Points as expected was making money winning skins on the 18 holes as well as nearly winning his share of the Stableford money.  He left Chiang Rai and played 6 rounds elsewhere and put the scores into Birdie.  Five of the six rounds he played elsewhere counted toward lowering his handicap.   It is possible that his game improved while he was away but judging from his scores since he has been back I would think not.  My guess is that the courses he played are rated properly where I know that Santiburi is not.    Unknowingly he manipulated his handicap lower and ended up losing more than his fair share.

rounds date money pins stable holes
10 Jim — before Birdie -175 -330 -200 355
per round -18 -33 -20 36
11 Jim — after Birdie -430 -420 -330 320
per round -39 -38 -30 29
21 Jim — combined -605 -750 -530 675
per round -29 -36 -25 32

Jim has not won any Stableford money since his conversion to Birdie.   Why?   He has made 2 mistakes which have him playing off 30 instead of 34 .   First, he has not entered his last 20 scores.  He has entered only 9 even though he has recently played 11.   If one of his first 9 rounds is better than the rest it will be the major influence on his handicap.  Second, I don’t think he is aware that his index is not his handicap and that he has to look up his blue tee handicap for Santiburi.   Playing about 4 strokes off your handicap will almost always take you out of the Stableford as well as killing your chances of winning 4 of the 18 holes.

rounds date money pins stable holes
19 Steve White tees -342 -630 -105 393
per round -18 -33 -6 21
6 Steve Blue Tees 590 -150 0 740
per round 98 -25 0 123
25 Steve all rounds 248 -780 -105 1133
per round 10 -31 -4 45

Exactly what I would have predicted.   A high handicapper playing off the correct handicap breaking about even in the Stableford and winning skins on the 18 holes.  From personal experience I have learned that it is best to play from the blue tees rather than giving up strokes to play the whites.   It worked for Steve as well.

Those in the middle:

rounds date money pins stable holes
51 Graham pre Birdie -3095 -1320 -105 -1670
per round -61 -26 -2 -33
19 Graham with Birdie -653 -580 -268 195
per round -34 -31 -14 10
70 Graham all rounds -3748 -1900 -373 -1475
per round -54 -27 -5 -21

 

rounds date money pins stable holes
14 Leo – pre Birdie -105 -420 -100 415
per round -8 -30 -7 30
7 Leo with Birdie 2868 350 610 1908
per round 410 50 87 273
21 Leo all rounds 2763 -70 510 2323
per round 132 -3 24 111

Since the adoption of Birdie, Graham hasn’t been doing near as badly.   My earnings increased substantially.   Marc hasn’t got a Birdie handicap and he has only played with SMAF 3 times since the group’s transition so there isn’t any way of knowing if Birdie has affected him.

Tomorrow I will answer the question.   Are skins fair?

 

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